Stop wondering if you're cursed! Get scientific validation of your bad luck with comprehensive statistical analysis, emotional support, and community context. Finally understand if your frustration is justified.
Pity systems increase your drop rate after consecutive failures. For example: if you fail 90 times, the next attempts might have 2x higher chance until you succeed.
Enter your drop rate and attempts above, then click "Analyze My Luck" to discover if you're truly unlucky or just experiencing normal variance.
Gambler's Fallacy: "I'm due for a drop after going dry" - Wrong! Each attempt has the same independent probability.
Hot Hand Fallacy: "I got 2 drops quickly, I'm on a lucky streak" - Wrong! Past success doesn't predict future success.
Loss aversion means we feel bad outcomes 2-3x more intensely than good ones. A long dry streak psychologically "weighs" more than quick successes.
We remember dramatic failures more than quiet successes. That 10,000 attempt dry streak sticks in memory more than 5 quick drops.
"I can't quit now, I've already invested 500 hours!" Past time invested doesn't change future probabilities.
Each attempt has exactly the same chance. Flip a coin 1000 times and get tails - flip #1001 still has 50% chance of heads.
Over MASSIVE sample sizes, results approach the expected rate. But "large" means millions of attempts, not hundreds.
Going 2-3x the expected rate without success happens to millions of players. You're not cursed - you're experiencing normal statistical variance.
Decide your maximum attempts before starting. Stick to it regardless of outcome.
Keep detailed logs of ALL your attempts, not just the memorable failures.
Share your struggles. Millions of players understand exactly how you feel.
Our luck analyzer uses the same mathematical principles that game developers use: binomial probability distribution. The calculations are 100% mathematically accurate for the given drop rates. However, real game systems may have:
💡 Pro tip: Our analyzer represents the "worst case scenario" assuming pure RNG. If your actual results are better than predicted, the game likely has hidden protection systems.
This is one of the most common questions, rooted in well-documented psychological phenomena:
Human brains evolved to remember threats (failures) more vividly than rewards. A 1000-attempt dry streak emotionally "weighs" more than getting 3 drops in 200 attempts.
Your most recent experiences dominate perception. If you're currently dry, it feels like you're "always unlucky" even if your long-term stats are normal.
This is crucial for mental health. Here are science-based guidelines for when to step away:
99% of the time, your RNG is working perfectly - you're just experiencing normal statistical variance. Even with "fair" RNG, going 3-5x over the expected rate happens to millions of players regularly.
Reality check: In a game with 1 million players hunting 1/1000 drops, about 1000 players will go 10x dry. That's not broken RNG - that's mathematics working exactly as expected.
Pity systems are anti-frustration mechanics that guarantee rewards after a certain number of failures. Unlike pure RNG, they provide predictable worst-case scenarios and dramatically reduce extreme dry streaks.
No protection - can theoretically go infinite without success. Higher emotional variance but "authentic" randomness.
Guaranteed success within X attempts. More predictable costs, better for mental health, but some consider it "fake" randomness.
Soft pity gradually increases your drop rate as you approach the hard limit, while hard pityis the absolute maximum attempts before guaranteed success.
• Soft pity: Starts at pull 75, gradually increases 5-star rate
• Hard pity: Guaranteed 5-star at pull 90
• Most players get their 5-star between pulls 75-85
This is mostly survivorship bias and volume effects, not special treatment. Here's the mathematical reality:
Math fact: If 10,000 people each flip a coin 20 times, about 1 person will get 18+ heads. That person becomes the "lucky streamer" everyone talks about.
No. True RNG systems are completely immune to timing, rituals, account age, spending history, or any other external factors. These are mathematical systems, not magical ones.
These are the critical probability milestones every player should understand. They help set realistic expectations and identify when you're genuinely unlucky vs experiencing normal variance.
Example: For a 1/1000 drop rate: 50% by 693 attempts, 90% by 2,303 attempts, 99% by 4,605 attempts
Absolutely yes - especially if you're prone to frustration or make emotional decisions about gaming. Luck analyzers provide crucial perspective that can save you time, money, and mental health.
Pure RNG with hidden protection on newer content
Very High - No protection on 90% of content
Players going 50,000+ dry for pets
Soft pity + hard pity at 90 pulls
Moderate - Pity limits worst outcomes
Max 180 pulls per character ($300)
Hybrid RNG + increasing protection
Low-Medium - Good protection systems
Usually capped at 20-30 attempts
Highest emotional variance but most "authentic" randomness. Best for players who accept extreme outcomes.
More predictable costs but can create false expectations. Good for budget-conscious players.
Most psychologically healthy - guaranteed progress toward goals. Best for mental health.
Reality: This is the gambler's fallacy. Each attempt has exactly the same probability regardless of previous results. Your 10,000th attempt at a 1/1000 drop still has exactly 0.1% chance.
Why it feels true: Our pattern-seeking brains expect "balance" in small samples. We incorrectly think bad luck should be "paid back" by good luck.
Reality: Most "streamer luck" is explained by volume (they play more), selective showing (highlight reels), and statistical anomalies happening to someone eventually in large populations.
The math: With 1 million players, someone getting 10x lucky is virtually guaranteed. We just don't see the 999,999 players with normal luck.
Reality: Modern game design increasingly includes bad luck protection, duplicate protection, and weighted systems that aren't pure RNG. These are business decisions, not superstitions.
Examples: Hearthstone pack opening, some MMO raid loot, mobile game "pity" systems. These are documented features, not myths.
Calculate if grinding is more efficient than earning gold elsewhere and buying the item. Many waste hundreds of hours on items they could afford in 10.
Play during your most alert hours when servers are stable. Your efficiency matters more than timing superstitions.
Combine grinding with podcasts, streams, or educational content. Transform monotonous farming into productive multitasking.
Stop wondering if you're cursed! Get scientific validation of your luck with comprehensive statistical analysis and emotional support. Finally understand if your frustration is justified.